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Victoria needs a ten year health growth plan
22 October 2010.
The Brumby Government and Liberal/National Coalition must reveal their ten year health plans to reduce long waits for elective surgery and emergency care before the 27 November election, AMA Victoria President Dr Harry Hemley said today.
"Victorians are waiting too long for elective surgery and emergency care," he said. "One of the key contributors to these long waits is a shortage of beds to care for patients after their elective surgery or while they receive treatment.
"The Brumby Government has plugged a number of holes in the health system in recent years and committed to increasing bed numbers but these commitments don’t go far enough.
"Likewise, the Opposition has made a few worthy health commitments but I’m unsure how it all fits together.
"What we are missing from both parties is a long term growth plan for our health system."
Dr Hemley said Victoria will need an extra 1900 beds in the state’s public hospital system, which is the equivalent of three Alfred Hospitals, unless innovative care solutions are embraced.
"More and more of the same just isn't good enough," he said. "There is no doubt we will need extra beds. However, we can mitigate the need for some of these beds and more hospitals through real reform and improving choices for patients."
"An expansion of the Hospital in the Home program and other hospital care alternatives can work out cheaper and more comfortable for patients. As would more mental health care coordinators so the severely mentally ill can be supported to live in the community.
"We need the major parties to consider innovative treatment options for patients in their long term plans."
BACKGROUND
A ten year plan to increase public hospital capacity
According to the Victorian Government’s own population projections[1], Victoria’s population will grow to 6, 332, 776 in 2021. If this projection is correct, the health system will need an extra 187 hospital beds each year just to maintain the current level of service — 1870 beds over ten years.
AMA Victoria’s calculations below show the projected increases in selected growth areas across metropolitan Melbourne and regional Victoria. Data was obtained from the Department of Planning and Community Development and the Australian Bureau of Statistics and is publicly available.[2] These data map the projected population increase from 2011 to 2021.
Inner Melbourne
Melbourne City will see a population increase of 43 505 people over the next ten years. This will mean an extra 104 beds will be required over ten years to maintain the current level of service.
Hospitals in area: Royal Melbourne Hospital, Royal Women’s Hospital, Royal Children’s, St Vincent’s Hospital, Royal Victorian Eye and Ear Hospital. (These major hospitals also provide statewide services.)
South-eastern suburbs (Cardinia, Casey, Greater Dandenong)
These local government areas will see a population increase of 130 000 people over the next ten years. This means an extra 312 beds are required over ten years to maintain the current level of service.
Hospitals in area: Dandenong Hospital, Casey Hospital.
Western suburbs (Maribyrnong, Wyndham, Hobson’s Bay, Melton)
This area will see a population increase of 152 600 people over the next ten years. This will mean an extra 366 beds are required in the West to maintain the current level of service.
Hospitals in area: Williamstown Hospital, Western Hospital, Werribee Mercy Hospital.
Northern suburbs (Whittlesea, Hume, Mitchell)
This area will see a population increase of 119 500 people over the next ten years. This will mean an extra 287 beds are required in the North to maintain the current level of service. This area services large parts north of Melbourne.
Hospital in area: Northern Hospital.
Greater Bendigo
Greater Bendigo will see a population increase of 19 551 people over the next ten years. This will require an extra 46 beds to maintain the current level of service. Bendigo is the major hospital in a much larger region, extending north and west. The Victorian Government has committed to $473 million for a new Bendigo Hospital in the State Budget 2010-2011, which will include 163 new beds by 2016. The Coalition has promised $630 million for a new Bendigo Hospital, which will include 355 acute inpatient beds.
Hospital in the area: Bendigo Hospital.
Ballarat
Ballarat will see a population increase of 15 348 people over the next ten years. This will require an extra 36 beds to maintain the current level of service. Ballarat is also a key regional hospital, servicing areas further west.
Hospital in area: Ballarat Health Services.
Greater Geelong
Greater Geelong will see a population increase of 31 854 people over the next ten years. This will require an extra 76 beds to maintain the current level of service. Geelong Hospital is the major service for the peninsula and for the south west, extending to the South Australian border.
Hospital in area: Geelong Hospital.
Gippsland (East Gippsland, South Gippsland)
The Gippsland region will see a population increase of 25 763 people over the next ten years. This will require an extra 67 beds to maintain the current level of service.
Hospitals in area: Bairnsdale Hospital, Latrobe Regional Hospital.
[1] Department of Planning and Community Development, http://www.dpcd.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/32210/Victoria_info_sheet.pdf, accessed 6 October 2010.
[2] Department of Planning and Community Development, http://www.dpcd.vic.gov.au/home/publications-and-research/urban-and-regional-research/victoria-in-future-2008, accessed 6 October 2010.
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